As many of you may be aware, the deadline for app developers to comply with Apple’s new competition stifling rules is the end of this month. So far, no changes are evident in either the Amazon Kindle for iOS app or even the Barnes & Noble Nook app. While it would seem odd for this to be the case this close to the deadline, I’m thinking it might be a carefully made decision on Amazon’s part.
We know by now, or at least are overwhelmingly confident, that there will be a Kindle Tablet coming later this year. By releasing something like that, Amazon sets themselves up for a far more justified version of the old Kindle vs iPad debate. They need to set themselves apart as a device company. The way I see it, Android isn’t enough at this point. Too many other people are already working with it. Even having their own on-site app store won’t necessarily wow anybody. Some good publicity would help though.
Assume for a moment that the Kindle for iOS app doesn’t get changed in any way before the June 30th deadline. Apple will then have two choices. They can either follow through on threats to remove apps in violation of the new rules or they can publicly admit that they need what these developers bring to the table. I think it’s likely that banning will occur.
Amazon’s response to this, if planned correctly, could be huge publicity. I would expect something along the lines of a public statement explaining that the Kindle Store simply cannot productively operate under the restrictions that Apple is trying to place on it, but that as a service to their loyal customers the app will be chopped down to comply with the new rules enough so that existing customers can still read what they’ve bought while Amazon examines other solutions. Then, a month or two down the line, a full roll-out of Kindle for the Web that completely bypasses the need for apps.
Yes, under the new rules Amazon could just raise prices of in-app purchases to make up the margin that Apple is demanding. This would bring them nothing but ill will from the average Kindle for iOS user, though. With the new line of Kindle Tablets pending, these are the same customers that Amazon has to be hoping to win away. Probably not the smartest thing to pass on fees to them.
They could also choose to simply announce that all purchases must be done on the website and do away with the in-app purchasing links. I think that’s probably what will happen with the post-banning reboot of the app, should my scenario prove true, but it would cause the loss of impulse buying opportunity for a large portion of the Kindle user base without also providing any sort of good PR. I just don’t see that making sense right now.
We’ll know by the end of the month, of course, but right now there hasn’t been any intention to comply expressed by Amazon. Most likely, they’ll just stand by and watch Apple shoot themselves in the foot while pointing out that the Kindle makes a great, affordable eReader alternative to putting up with that sort of ridiculousness. The Kindle for iOS app doesn’t seem likely to be as profitable for the company under the new guidelines anyway, so they might as well get that preemptive jump on Apple in the public eye.